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ALMOST HALF OF MARRIAGES END IN DIVORCE
2008-04-03
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ALMOST HALF OF MARRIAGES END IN DIVORCE
英国近半夫妻各奔东西
By Chris Giles, Economics Editor
Monday, March 31, 2008
Almost half the couples who married in 2005 can expect to divorce, in a further indication that marriage is falling out of fashion.
Coming just a day after official figures showed the lowest proportion of adult men and women marrying since records began in 1862, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics show the probability of couples splitting up is growing ever higher.
While official estimates suggest 10 in every 100 couples will live to celebrate their diamond wedding anniversary 60 years after tying the knot, 45 of the remaining 90 will end up divorced.
The remainder will cease with the death of one or other spouse.
Even though many studies have shown that staying hitched improves happiness, particularly of husbands, couples clearly see some benefit in ditching their other halves.
The ONS estimate that 45 per cent of the 2005 vintage of marriages will not last compares poorly with its previous calculations that 40 per cent of those who wed in 1993-94 would divorce, a figure that falls to 37 per cent for 1988 marriages and 34 per cent for those who tied the knot in 1979-80.
The likelihood of divorce is much higher for those who marry younger. For example, while 60 per cent of bachelors who married in their teens in 1986 were divorced 20 years later, the equivalent figure was just 29 per cent for 30 to 34-year-old bachelors.
One divorce is also more likely to lead to another. Previously married men aged 30-34 who married in 1996 were 30 per cent more likely to be divorced 10 years later than bachelors of the same age who married in the same year. Second marriages are also more fragile for widowers.
The riskiest year for marriages is the fifth, when the probability of divorce is 3.3 per cent. But marriages are at their most vulnerable to irreparable damage during their first 10 years.
Ben Wilson and Steve Smallwood, the two ONS statisticians who compiled the figures, calculate that, while those who tied the knot in 2005 had a 45 per cent chance of divorce, should their marriages last a decade the chance they will subsequently fail is under 31 per cent.
If marriages last 20 years there is only a 15 per cent chance of a split.
By the time marriages have lasted 30 years, there is a very low, but still increasing, probability that couples will divorce.
The ONS estimates divorce probabilities by studying the stable pattern of divorces by different vintages of marriages.
While the divorce rate of those getting married in 1966 settled out at 30 per cent, more than 35 per cent of those getting hitched in 1976 have already divorced, and an even higher proportion of those married in 1981 are no longer with their partners.
Recently, the patterns of divorce in the years after marriage have stopped getting worse.
So unless there are big changes in society's attitude to marriage, it is a pretty safe bet that close to 45 per cent of those preparing for the “happiest day of their lives” and making a commitment for life are deluded.
There is still a chance that the divorce statistics might turn out to be better than the gloomy prediction from the ONS in coming years.
That could happen, for example, if the drop in the marriage rate signifies that only those couples most likely to stay together are getting married these days.
英国近半夫妻各奔东西
英国《金融时报》经济编辑克里斯•贾尔斯(Chris Giles)报道
2008年3月31日 星期一
2005年结婚的夫妻中，半数都可能以离婚收场，这进一步表明，婚姻的形式正越来越过时。
此前一天，官方公布的数据显示，成年男性和女性结婚的比例，创下自1862年有纪录以来的最低水平。英国国家统计局(Office for National Statistics, ONS)公布的最新数据则显示，夫妻离婚的可能性越来越高。
官方估计的数字显示，在每100对夫妻中，只有10对能活到庆祝他们喜结连理60周年的钻石婚纪念日，在其余90对夫妇中，有45对将以离婚收场。
余下的夫妻将以配偶中的一人死亡而告终。
尽管很多研究显示，结婚有助于增进幸福，特别是丈夫的幸福，但夫妻们显然也看到，分手有某些好处。
国家统计局估算，在2005年结婚的夫妻中，45%的婚姻将难以为继，这一数字高于先前的数字。1993年至1994年间结婚的夫妻中40%将离婚，1988年：37%，1979年至1980年：34%。
对于结婚更早的人而言，离婚的机率也大得多。例如：虽然1986年结婚、当时不到20岁的单身男女中，20年后有60%都已离婚，但在30岁至34岁结婚的单身男女中，离婚比例却只有29%。
一起离婚引发另一起离婚的可能性也有所上升。1996年结婚、30岁至34岁有过婚史的男性，与同一年在相同年龄段结婚的单身男子相比，10年后离婚的几率高出30%。对鳏夫而言，第二次婚姻也更为脆弱。
婚姻风险中最大的是第五年，这一年离婚的可能性为3.3%。但在婚姻的头10年，最容易遭受不可挽回的破坏。
但国家统计局负责编辑以上数据的两位统计学家本•威尔逊(Ben Wilson)和史蒂夫•斯莫尔伍德(Steve Smallwood)推算，虽然在2005年结婚的人离婚的可能性为45%，但如果他们的婚姻能维持10年，离婚的机率就会降至31%以下。
如果婚姻延续20年，则离婚的比例只有15%。
如果婚姻能延续30年，离婚的几率会非常低，不过这一比率也在不断上升。
国家统计局是通过观察不同年份婚姻的稳定离婚模式，来计算离婚的可能性。
虽然1966年结婚的夫妇离婚率为30%，但在1976年结婚的夫妇中，35%以上也已离婚，而1981年结婚的夫妇离婚率甚至更高。
近年来，在婚后数年中离婚的状况已停止恶化。
因此，除非社会看待婚姻的态度有重大变化，否则我们基本上可以断言，在那些筹划“生命中最快乐时光”并承诺终生相守的人中，有近45%的人被蒙在鼓里。
不过，在未来几年中，离婚数据仍有可能强于国家统计局的悲观预期。
例如，有可能出现这种情况：如果结婚率的下降意味着现在只有那些最可能相守的恋人才会结婚的话，离婚率无疑会下降。
译者/管自力
阅读本文章英文,请点击 ALMOST HALF OF MARRIAGES END IN DIVORCE
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